The Tasmanian Labor Party is facing a period of intense scrutiny after a recent DemosAU poll placed its support at a record-low 21 percent. This result sees Labor tied with One Nation, which debuted in the polling at the same level. The survey, conducted between June 21 and July 6, highlights a significant shift in the state's political landscape, with combined support for the two major parties falling to 49 percent, down from roughly 65 percent at the 2025 state election. The Liberal government also saw its support decline to 28 percent, a drop of nearly 12 percentage points since last year.
Opposition leader Josh Willie has faced internal pressure following the poll, with reports of colleagues questioning his leadership and canvassing potential replacements. Mr. Willie has publicly challenged these anonymous critics to identify themselves, asserting that he retains the backing of the party's caucus, rank-and-file members, and the union movement. He attributed the poor polling to broader political forces affecting major parties across Australia, emphasizing that Labor must work harder to demonstrate its ability to improve the lives of Tasmanians.
Despite the internal friction, Mr. Willie maintains that the party remains focused on core issues such as healthcare, the cost of living, housing, and education. He has argued that the current political climate requires a steady hand rather than leadership instability. Meanwhile, the rise of One Nation, despite having no elected representatives in the state, suggests a growing appetite among voters for alternatives to the established major parties. As the state government also grapples with declining support, the political environment in Tasmania remains highly volatile, with both major parties struggling to reconnect with an increasingly frustrated electorate.