A new report from Australia’s national science agency, the CSIRO, has concluded that abandoning the nation’s net zero emissions target would not lower electricity prices for households or businesses. The annual GenCost assessment, produced in partnership with the Australian Energy Market Operator, indicates that renewable energy supported by battery storage continues to provide the most affordable pathway for the country’s electricity system. This finding challenges recent political claims that moving away from climate targets would offer immediate financial relief to consumers struggling with cost-of-living pressures.
The research highlights that the average generation cost in the National Electricity Market has fallen significantly, reaching approximately $104 per megawatt-hour in 2025, down from a peak of $189 in 2022. Experts project that these costs could drop further to between $80 and $90 per megawatt-hour by 2030, driven largely by the falling cost of battery technology and increased capacity. While some fossil fuel technologies remain part of the current mix, the report notes that rising global demand for gas turbines—partly fueled by the growth of data centers—is putting upward pressure on the costs of gas-fired generation.
According to the CSIRO, solar and wind power are expected to supply the vast majority of Australia’s electricity by 2050. The analysis suggests that even if Australia were to pivot away from its current net zero policy, the long-term costs of building new power stations of any type would likely remain similar. The report emphasizes that the transition to a cleaner grid is helping to shield Australian consumers from the volatility of global energy markets, which have been impacted by geopolitical tensions and supply chain shifts.
Looking ahead, the focus remains on how the grid will manage the integration of more renewable sources. While the current data points to a stable and potentially cheaper future for electricity generation, the practical impact for the public will depend on the continued rollout of storage infrastructure and the management of transmission networks. The CSIRO’s findings provide a technical baseline for ongoing debates in Canberra, where climate policy remains a central and highly contested issue.