Critics of the current tobacco control strategy argue that the government's reliance on ever-increasing excise taxes has reached a tipping point, inadvertently fueling the rise of the black market. They contend that while high taxes were once an effective tool for reducing smoking rates, they now primarily serve to push socio-economically disadvantaged smokers toward cheaper, illicit alternatives. This perspective suggests that the policy is no longer achieving its intended health outcomes but is instead creating a lucrative environment for criminal enterprises to thrive.
From this viewpoint, the fact that 34% of smokers are now accessing illicit tobacco indicates that the price disincentive has become counterproductive. By making legal tobacco unaffordable for many, the government has effectively handed a massive market share to illegal operators who do not adhere to any safety or packaging standards. Critics argue that policymakers must be willing to consider all options, including a review of current excise levels, to address the reality that the current approach is failing to prevent people from smoking and is instead shifting them into an unregulated, dangerous market.
Those who hold this view emphasize that the focus should shift toward more pragmatic solutions that acknowledge the economic pressures on smokers. They argue that if the goal is to reduce nicotine dependence, the government should prioritize affordable access to cessation support and evidence-based alternatives rather than relying solely on punitive taxation. Without a change in strategy, they warn that the illicit market will continue to grow, undermining the very health gains that Australia has worked so hard to achieve over the past several decades.