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Backing Treasury's warning: Proactive stance shields Australia from worst of war's economic impact

Published July 27, 2026 at 9:02 PM UTC

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Supporters of the Treasury's warning argue that early preparation is essential to mitigate the damage from the Middle East conflict. By alerting the public and businesses, the government can encourage fuel conservation and stockpiling, reducing panic when shortages emerge. The proposed oil refinery is also defended as a long-term strategic investment. Proponents note that Australia's reliance on foreign refineries left it exposed during previous supply shocks, such as the 2022 Ukraine crisis. A new refinery would create jobs, bolster energy security, and stabilise fuel prices. They point to the Treasurer's measured tone as appropriate, given the uncertainty of the war's trajectory. 'Treasury is doing its job by providing a realistic worst-case scenario,' said an economist at a Sydney-based think tank. 'Ignoring the risks would be far more dangerous.' The backing for the refinery comes from both industry groups and some unions, who see it as a chance to revive domestic manufacturing. They argue that even if the war ends soon, the geopolitical landscape has permanently shifted, making energy independence a priority.