While there are signs of a potential rebound in Canada's real estate market, caution is warranted due to underlying challenges that may impede a swift recovery. Analysts advise stakeholders to approach the market with measured expectations.
**Economic Indicators and Policy Interventions**
In August 2025, the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) projected a 3.5% decline in national home resales, amounting to approximately 467,100 units. This downturn was attributed to factors such as trade tensions and elevated interest rates. While RBC anticipated a 7.9% increase in resale activity in 2026, forecasting around 504,100 units, this projection remains below the pre-pandemic five-year average of 511,000 units, indicating a sluggish recovery.
Similarly, Royal LePage's December 2025 market survey forecasted a modest 1% year-over-year increase in the national aggregate home price, reaching $823,016 by the fourth quarter of 2026. This outlook was influenced by factors like lower interest rates, increased supply, and reduced competition, creating a more favorable environment for consumers. However, the anticipated price growth is modest.