The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in Schleswig-Holstein is facing a sharp decline in voter support, according to a recent poll conducted by the research institute INSA. The survey, which comes nine months before the state election, shows the party of Minister-President Daniel Günther falling to 27 percent. This represents a loss of twelve percentage points compared to the previous survey conducted in January 2025.
This shift in polling numbers suggests that the current governing coalition of the CDU and the Green Party would no longer command a majority in the state parliament. While the CDU has seen a double-digit drop, the Green Party has gained four percentage points, reaching 17 percent. Meanwhile, the AfD has risen to 18 percent, positioning itself as the second-strongest political force in the state.
The decline marks a notable change from the 2022 state election, where the CDU achieved a strong result of 43.4 percent. Political analysts are now looking at how these figures might influence the political landscape in the lead-up to the April 2027 election. The poll, which surveyed 1,000 people, carries a statistical margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
As the parties prepare for the upcoming campaign, the loss of support for the CDU creates uncertainty regarding future coalition options. With the current governing alliance falling short of a majority, the political math for forming a stable government in Kiel is becoming increasingly complicated. Observers will be watching to see how the CDU leadership responds to these figures in the coming weeks.