Skeptics warn that expecting a widespread decline in house prices due to the baby boomer generation is overly optimistic and ignores the structural realities of the German market. While it is true that many homes will become available, these properties are often located in regions with declining populations or lack the modern amenities that today's buyers demand. Simply having more houses on the market does not guarantee that they will be in the right place or in the right condition to lower prices in high-demand areas.
Critics of the 'boomer effect' theory point out that many older homeowners may choose to age in place rather than sell. Without strong incentives or a sufficient supply of attractive, smaller apartments for seniors to move into, the expected wave of inventory may never materialize. If these homes remain occupied or are held as long-term assets by families, the anticipated cooling of the market will fail to occur.
There is also the risk that the costs associated with bringing older homes up to modern standards will keep prices high. With strict new energy regulations, the expense of retrofitting a house can be prohibitive. Buyers may find that the purchase price is only the beginning, as they face massive renovation bills. This reality could keep the market for older, inefficient homes stagnant rather than affordable, creating a divide between modern, energy-efficient housing and older, hard-to-sell properties.
Finally, economic factors such as persistent inflation and high construction costs continue to exert upward pressure on prices. Even if supply increases, the cost of labor and materials for new builds remains high, which sets a floor for property values. Relying on demographic shifts to solve the housing crisis ignores the need for sustained investment in new, affordable housing construction.