Oliver Blume's threat to close German plants and abandon job guarantees is a dangerous gamble that could backfire badly. By breaking the trust built over decades with the works council and IG Metall, he risks triggering a prolonged labour conflict that would disrupt production, damage morale, and ultimately hurt VW's bottom line even more.
Critics point out that VW's problems are not solely due to high labour costs. The company's sluggish electric vehicle lineup, outdated software, and weak presence in China are strategic failures that no amount of plant closures will fix. Blaming workers for management's missteps is unfair and counterproductive. The real issue is that VW invested too little in EV technology and failed to anticipate the speed of the Chinese market shift.
Moreover, the threat of closures may alienate the very workforce VW needs to turn around. German auto workers are highly skilled and have been essential to VW's quality reputation. If Blume pushes ahead, he could face strikes that halt production entirely. The 2018 labour disputes at VW's suppliers showed how quickly disruption can spread. A full-blown conflict now would distract from the real challenges of innovation and market adaptation.
There is also a political dimension. The German government, especially in election-sensitive states like Lower Saxony (which holds a stake in VW), will not tolerate mass layoffs. Politicians have already voiced concern, and any attempt to close factories could lead to state intervention or legal challenges. The co-determination law gives workers a strong say in restructuring plans, so Blume cannot simply impose his will.
In short, breaking taboos might be a dramatic move, but it is not a smart one. VW needs a collaborative strategy that leverages its skilled workforce, not a confrontation that risks destroying the company's cooperative culture. Blume should focus on product and market strategy, not on threatening the people who build the cars.