The early jockeying to succeed Markus Söder carries serious risks for the CSU. Instead of focusing on governing Bavaria and preparing for the 2023 state election, party heavyweights are already engaging in what looks like a public contest for the top job. This internal distraction could damage the CSU's image as a disciplined, effective governing party and hand an advantage to its political rivals.
History shows that premature succession battles can be destructive. When the CDU struggled over who would succeed Angela Merkel, the party suffered a series of electoral setbacks and internal divisions that took years to heal. The CSU should be wary of repeating that mistake. The Bavarian electorate expects its leaders to concentrate on issues like healthcare, education, and the economy—not on internal power plays.
Another concern is that the fight could deepen factional splits within the CSU. The conservative and moderate wings have different priorities, and a bitter contest might leave the party fractured. Alexander Dobrindt and Markus Blume represent differing approaches, but their supporters might not easily unite behind the winner. This could lead to long-term friction at a time when the party needs to present a united front against challenges from the Greens and the AfD.
Furthermore, pushing Söder into an early departure could backfire. He remains a popular figure in Bavaria with strong name recognition. If the internal pressure forces him to step down before the state election, the CSU might lose its most effective campaigner. The best course of action may be to let Söder set his own timeline and avoid creating unnecessary uncertainty. The party should prioritize governing over planning for a future that is not yet here.