Despite the polls, analysts warn that a PP-Vox government could undermine hard-won social progress and deepen regional divides. Vox's platform includes reversing abortion laws, rolling back gender equality policies, and confronting Catalan and Basque separatists with force. These stances alarm civil rights groups and international observers.
Moreover, the right's lead is partly a product of voter fatigue and low turnout among younger, left-leaning citizens—not necessarily a mandate for radical change. The polls capture mood swings, not settled preferences. Sánchez's government did pass significant measures, such as raising the minimum wage and expanding renewable energy. These could still galvanize the left vote as election day nears.
Economically, the PP's promised tax cuts risk reducing public revenue for healthcare and education, which are already strained. Vox's anti-immigration rhetoric threatens to alienate the millions of immigrants who contribute to the economy. Internationally, a right-wing coalition might antagonize EU partners on climate targets and migration policy.
The real danger, opponents say, is the normalization of far-right ideas. Even if combined with the PP, Vox would hold considerable sway, potentially dragging policy further to the extreme. Spain has enjoyed four decades of stable democracy, and the next months will test how well its institutions can resist illiberal shifts.