Heather Exner-Pirot: Cutting off oil exports to spite Trump would cripple Canada

A proposal to cut off oil exports to the United States as retaliation for President Trump’s trade policies would backfire severely on Canada, argues analyst Heather Exner-Pirot in the National Post. Canada ships about 4 million barrels of oil per day to the U.S., representing roughly 95% of its crude exports. The country lacks pipeline capacity to divert those shipments to other markets, meaning any disruption would strand vast volumes of oil. That would shut in production, slash government revenues, and trigger massive job losses in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland. Exner-Pirot warns that such a move would inflict more damage on Canada than on the U.S., which could replace Canadian crude with supplies from other sources. The idea, floated by some politicians as a bargaining chip, ignores the integrated nature of North American energy markets and the lack of short-term alternatives for Canadian producers. Any export cut would also violate existing trade agreements and likely invite retaliatory measures from Washington. For Canada, the cost of using oil as a weapon would be economic self-harm, not leverage.