Opposing Exner-Pirot’s warning: Canada should not rule out oil export leverage

While Exner-Pirot rightly notes the risks, completely dismissing the use of oil exports as leverage underestimates Canada’s potential bargaining power. The U.S. refineries in the Midwest and Rocky Mountain regions are specifically configured to process heavy Canadian crude, and replacing it would require costly retrofits and months of adjustment. A short, targeted cut could still impose meaningful pain on American consumers and refineries, forcing Washington to negotiate. Canada could also implement a phased reduction or a surcharge rather than a full cutoff, minimizing domestic damage while signaling resolve. Moreover, the status quo of allowing the U.S. to threaten tariffs without consequence sets a dangerous precedent. Ottawa should keep all options on the table, including calibrated energy measures, to protect Canadian interests. Exner-Pirot’s analysis is valuable but too absolute; it overlooks tactical possibilities that could shift the balance of power in trade talks.