Critics warn that the 8 billion euro estimate rests on optimistic assumptions that may not hold, noting that such studies often overstate benefits. The forecast explicitly depends on Spain winning the 2026 World Cup, an outcome far from guaranteed given strong international competition. Even reaching the final is uncertain, and a disappointing performance could lead to negligible or even negative economic effects.
Earlier similar projections for previous World Cups have been criticized for overpromising. In Brazil, the 2014 tournament led to massive public spending but did not deliver the expected long-term economic boost. Displacement effects, where spending diverts from other sectors, can reduce net gains. Tourists may simply shift from other destinations, and local spending during the event may crowd out other consumption.
The report also may underestimate costs. The RFEF and Spanish companies will incur significant expenses for marketing, travel, and event-related operations. For players, the physical toll and opportunity costs of participating are not captured. Additionally, the 8 billion euro figure includes multiyear effects that are harder to verify and may be diluted over time.
Public policy decisions based on such projections risk misallocating resources. Instead of relying on a single sporting event, critics argue Spain should focus on structural economic reforms that yield more predictable benefits. The World Cup can be a catalyst, but betting the economy on a football result is a risky strategy.